Una conferencia de hace un año del historiador afincado en Pekín Jiang Xueqin está ganando renovada atención en línea a medida que aumentan las tensiones entre Estados Unidos e Irán, reflejando las predicciones que hizo sobre una futura guerra bajo una segunda presidencia de Trump.
La conferencia de Jiang de mayo de 2024, parte de su serie "Historia Predictiva" en YouTube, argumentó que una nueva administración Trump se vería empujada hacia la guerra con Irán debido a la presión política de un poderoso lobby israelí, los intereses saudíes y la dependencia de Estados Unidos de la hegemonía global para obtener beneficios económicos.
La conferencia, originalmente destinada a la enseñanza académica, se ha hecho viral en las redes sociales a medida que los combates entre Irán e Israel se intensifican y las tropas estadounidenses se ven cada vez más involucradas en el conflicto regional.
Por qué importa
Las tensiones entre Estados Unidos e Irán se han intensificado drásticamente tras una serie de acciones militares relacionadas con infraestructuras nucleares y represalias regionales. El domingo, Estados Unidos lanzó la "Operación Martillo de Medianoche", una ofensiva sorpresa dirigida a tres importantes sitios nucleares iraníes: Fordow, Natanz e Isfahán.
En medio de crecientes temores a un conflicto regional más amplio, Trump anunció el lunes que se había negociado un alto el fuego tentativo entre Irán e Israel mediante la mediación catarí. Sin embargo, la tregua pareció flaquear poco después, ya que ambos países continuaron intercambiando fuego. Trump reprendió públicamente a ambas naciones por socavar el acuerdo que él había conseguido.
Qué saber
En una conferencia del 29 de mayo de 2024—cuando Joe Biden aún era presidente y antes de que Trump sobreviviera a dos intentos de asesinato—el historiador afincado en Pekín Jiang Xueqin esbozó un escenario impactante para una futura guerra entre Estados Unidos y Irán. La conferencia, y la página de YouTube del historiador, pasaron prácticamente desapercibidas durante un año, generando solo unas pocas visualizaciones. Ahora, mientras la realidad alcanza su predicción, la conferencia se está volviendo viral. Su página ha acumulado más de 100.000 suscriptores en tres días.
Jiang outlined a scenario he called "Operation Iranian Freedom"—a joint invasion by the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, and allies including the UK and UAE. He suggested Trump would justify the war by pointing to Iran's nuclear program, proxy attacks, threats to allies, and a call to spread democracy.
These themes were reflected in Trump's recent speeches and posts, which invoked terrorism, nuclear threats, and support for Israel as grounds for military involvement.
"Israel becomes the top dog in the Middle East," he said. "If Iran and the U.S. are both weakened, there is no counterbalance."
Jiang's core warning was about "boots on the ground" military action: that U.S. troops, once deployed into Iran's mountainous terrain, would be "hostages, not soldiers," unable to mass forces, protect supply lines or escape. He estimated that conquering Iran would require "at least 3 to 4 million soldiers," far beyond the U.S. military's capacity, especially given its reliance on outsourced manufacturing and low recruitment.
The transcript of the class details how Jiang led students through a game-theory breakdown of key players—Trump, Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Israel and Saudi Arabia—and their incentives. He concluded that all actors had reasons to provoke conflict, but with radically different endgames.
Jiang compared the potential outcome to the Athenian invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE and the U.S. involvement in Vietnam and Ukraine. In each case, he said, overconfidence, poor supply logistics and a lack of domestic or local support led to failure. "They thought they were gods," he said of U.S. military planners. "But you're not God—and if you think you are, you get into a lot of trouble."
The lecturer also emphasized that a nuclear threat would be Trump's fallback if U.S. troops became trapped. Jiang imagined Trump threatening Tehran with annihilation if American forces were not allowed to leave safely. To prevent this, Jiang argued, Russia would likely declare a nuclear red line—promising to retaliate against any nation, including the U.S., that deployed nuclear weapons in the region.
"If Putin says that, he's a hero," Jiang told students. "He saved humanity. But because he says this, the United States is now trapped."
Yet the viral spread of Jiang's video has not gone unchallenged. On Reddit's r/Military forum, some commenters have criticized both his methods and past remarks. "Even a broken watch is right twice a day," one user wrote, pointing out that given the number of self-proclaimed geopolitical forecasters online, one of them was bound to get a scenario partially correct.
Another commenter, referencing Jiang's citation of game theory, said, "He makes some interesting predictions, but it's based on a lot of assumptions, historical examples that are out of context, and 'game theory' that he often cites but never demonstrates."
What People Are Saying
Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday: "ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly "Plane Wave" to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!"
El vicepresidente J.D. Vance publicó en X, anteriormente Twitter: "Gracias al audaz liderazgo del presidente Trump, el programa nuclear iraní ha sido aniquilado y la Guerra de los Doce Días ha terminado. Este es un momento histórico y un paso enorme hacia una paz duradera en Oriente Medio."
¿Qué pasa después
Sin confirmación oficial ni de Irán ni de Israel, y con hostilidades continuas reportadas a pesar del alto el fuego anunciado, la paz sigue lejos de estar garantizada.
Añade Newsweek como fuente preferida en Google para ver más de nuestra cobertura de confianza al buscar en tu casa.
